An overwhelming majority of the Poles voted to join the EU this weekend. With Eastern European EU referendums lined up at regular intervals throughout the year, a premature renewal of the Norwegian EU debate seems likely. Labor leader Jens Stoltenberg has now called for membership to be discussed in the election in 2005.

That Poland decides to join strenghtens arguments for Norway to join the same community. [..] This is historical, because it represents the final fulfillment of the fall of the Berlin wall. You can no longer talk about east and west, but a united Europe. The old Europe is melting together in a great community.

He's actually got a point - if forced to choose, I'd rather join an EU with eighty million Eastern Europeans in it, than one without. My hope is that Eastern Europe, tired of socialism and authoritarian centralization, will, in important areas, change the EU more than the EU changes them. The EU bureaucracy desperately needs reform, it needs transparency and checks and balances, or it will abuse its increasing powers - that much history tells us. That reform could be fueled by Eastern Europe. Or maybe not. In either case, it's too early to tell, which is why any discussion about giving up our national independence at this point is premature.

Let us wait 10 or 15 years, then I will consider membership. By that time, the EU ought to have faced a major structural or financial crisis or two, and we will have a much better idea of what direction it is heading in. Will it become what it was promised to be, primarily a large free-trade area, or continue in its current direction towards over-regulation and massive state power? We will, at some point, have to consider membership again. But not now. We can afford to wait and see - and perhaps grant our nation a chance to celebrate the 100th anniversary of its independence before we give it away again?

And yes, joining the EU would be to give away our independence. Not right away, of course, but to argue that we won't lose our independence because the EU today isn't a federal state is dishonest, when it's clearly moving in that direction. Giving away some of our independence may be a good thing, but that is what this is about. The EU isn't just another trade agreement. The date we join will enter our history, in retrospect if not immediately, along with May 17 1814 and June 7 1905.

As for why Labor brings this up now, Poland may be the trigger, but the underlying reasons are that 1) they expect an EU debate to tear apart potential and current centre-right coalitions, and 2) as one of the two clear Euro-federalist parties (the other being the Conservatives) they hope to benefit from the currently strong pro-EU sentiment. This may or may not work, but as Labor is at an historical low, stripped to a core of some 20-25% of the voters, it can't hurt them to try. The nation is another matter.

Maybe Norway shouldn't play so hard to get, in 10 o 15 years, maybe the EU won't want you.

With all due respect the Norwegian economy is doing better than, well, just about the rest of Europe. The reason we shouldn't join the EU is that it is a scam to suck Norway dry of money and reduce our access to the fisheries. That and a sell out by powerhungry politicians who'd rather sit at the trough in Brussels.

> or it will abuse its increasing powers

Surely you meant to say:

or it will increase its abusing powers

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