If I was conspiratorially minded I would speculate that the bin Laden tape offering a truce to Europe if it stops "attacking Muslims" was made by the CIA.

Therefore, in order to thwart opportunities for the merchants of war, and in response to the positive developments that were expressed in recent events and in the public opinion polls, which determined that most European peoples want peace, I urge ... the establishment of a permanent commission to nurture awareness among Europeans regarding the justness of our causes, particularly the cause of Palestine, and that use be made of the vast media resources to this end.

I hereby offer them a peace treaty, the essence of which is our commitment to halt actions against any country that commits itself to refraining from attacking Muslims or intervening in their affairs, including the American conspiracy against the larger Islamic world. ..

The peace treaty will be in force upon the exit of the last soldier of any given [European] country from our land.

The door of peace will remain open for three months from the broadcast of this statement. Whoever rejects the peace and wants war should know that we are the men [of war], and whoever wants a peace treaty and signs it, we hereby allow this peace treaty with him.

The only politically possible response to such a proposal is "don't be ridiculous - we don't negotiate with terrorists", which is exactly how almost every leader in Europe has replied. The idea of openly giving in to terrorist demands is offensive to everyone. Appeasement must be rationalized and euphemised, preferably with the help of anti-Americanism. "We're not giving in to terrorists, we're standing up to the US." This tape works against that illusion.

It's not that I believe it will have much effect, but if it has any, it will be the opposite of the one apparently intended. I don't believe in conspiracies, (again, if I did, I would find it just a little bit too convenient that the CIA has verified that the tape is probably authentic), and we don't have any need for them. Bin Laden is not a criminal mastermind. He's rational, but only to a point. If this is authentic, it's another miscalculation, not as big as September 11, but not likely to have the desired effect.

(Now, if he had offered to launch a peace process between al-Qaeda and the West, on the other hand ..)

Update: Jan Haugland believes the message was intended for moderate and radical Muslims, not Europe as such.

A truce, or a hudna in Arabic, is only offered when the Islamic side is in trouble, and needs to regroup before they can crush the infidels. It is a very clear sign of weakness, and should signalize a massive launch against Al- Qaida to squeeze them even more.

What will it take for the West to defeat Islam? :

http://www.faithfreedom.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=528

I have given it some thought, Bjørn, and my conclusion is that Bin Laden is not stupid, and that this is probably not a mistake from Bin Laden.

The reason is that this is not really a message primarily to Europe, carefully as it is crafted for that purpose, but a message to fence-sitting conservative Muslims who think Al-Qaeda is too extreme. he is playing for a greater support from conservative muslims and hopes to sway them to his case by trying to portray himself as more moderate than previously believed.

Second, he is addressing the radical Muslim population in Europe who may nevertheless have scruples about attacking their own host country. When Europe refuses to accept Bin Laden's honest and generous offer (*cough*) of a truce, it may harden them in their resolve to kill infidels.

Hi.

"Appeasement must be rationalized and euphemised, preferably with the help of anti-Americanism. "We're not giving in to terrorists, we're standing up to the US." This tape works against that illusion."

Yes, but the point is that European leaders are rejecting this invitation (in effect) to become protected slaves of the terror masters of Islam.

The insultingly obvious way the offer to submit was made makes it easier for them, as does the bad timing, with hostage situations underway and the body of Fabrizio Quattrocchi not yet cool. But the point is not how low the bar was set, but that the Europeans are getting over it. No! No! No! No!

Come on, this is great news! Let's smile for a day! :D

Bin laden is condemning the killing of Shaikh Yasin in his truce offer.

I am entitled to condemn that assassination as murder--Bin Ladin is certainly not.

The terrorists may be stupid enough to belive that our opposition to the war in Iraq, is equal to supporting their jihad. This truce offer is a welcome opportunity to clarify that point.

(Even the Soviet Union did hardly believe that western peaceniks would welcome Warsaw pact armor.)

After the cries all over Spain of "Aznar brought this upon us" (M-11), bin-Laden's offer may well resonate well among European "intellectuals". I suspect that a lot of people here in Europe would like nothing more than to leave the US and Israel to fight Islamism alone.

Jan Haugland: "this is not really a message primarily to Europe, carefully as it is crafted for that purpose, but a message to fence-sitting conservative Muslims who think Al-Qaeda is too extreme"

Perhaps. But remember that bin Laden does not understand the West very well. It may be that he has interepreted the reactions to Madrid as favorable to an open offer of peace. And he wouldn't be far off, just far enough for actual Europeans to be offended. Tricky thing, cross-cultural communication.

Lars Ruben: "I suspect that a lot of people here in Europe would like nothing more than to leave the US and Israel to fight Islamism alone."

Yes, but properly rationalized. If you look at the peace rhetoric it's always focused on the US and on Israel. If there are anyone in Norway today who says "we should give bin Laden what he wants so he doesn't attack us", I haven't heard it.

Bjorn: Plenty of Europeans say exactly that right here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/3628101.stm

I don't get this...How is bin Laden "not a mastermind"? Are you suggesting that there have been other terrorists who have successfully murdered 3000 people in one attack?

How many does one have to kill to rate "mastermind" status?

I don't get this...How is bin Laden "not a mastermind"? Are you suggesting that there have been other terrorists who have successfully murdered 3000 people in one attack?

How many does one have to kill to rate "mastermind" status?

Scott Martens has a very thoughtful post about the subject:

http://fistfulofeuros.net/archives/000551.php

He argues that it was never intented as a serious offer, but that it was a move in the media strategy that terrorism essentially is. I think he's right.

...which brings me to the other politically possible (and preferable) response which is: no respons at all.

Guys, pay attention to what's being taught in their schoolbooks, did you know America was discovered by Muslims?

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/001585.php

Taco: No response at all, however, is an impossiblity in western societies, not because of the gullibility of our governments, but because of the hysterical nature of our media, which thrives (makes money) by sowing anxiety on the populace.

Western governments only responded because they'd be peppered for a response by the media at the first opportunity.

The antidote to all this is to give less credence to mainstream media, - which is why blogging is all the more remarkable, in that it is a cultural and technological innovation that just might be the salve that's needed to right all the damage done by mainstream media.

The following was written in direct response to this blog post. I expanded it and made it a post on my blog.

Is the recent bin Laden tape really bin Laden? I heard an excerpt played on the radio, and it sounds like his voice, which is quite distinctive.

Personally, I thought Usama bin Laden's tape was a brilliant political ploy, and the European leaders fell right into it. That's not surprising though, because any response to this tape would constitute the error of 'confirming the consequent'. In other words, it's a bit like answering the question "do you still beat your wife?" An incautious answer will confirm the assumption in the statement, which is that one is, or has been, beating one's wife. Politicians use this trick all the time.

Bin Laden is cynically positioning al-Qaeda as the hapless victim - as he frequently does. His tape essentially says "If you stop assisting the American-Jewish alliance against Muslims, we will stop defending ourselves (by killing you) - because after all, ours is the camp of peace, and we are responding against the camp of war". The ultimatum is packed with lies and deceptive assumptions, all integrated into the question.

Any response that does not identify and refute the underlying assumptions will deliver a strategic propaganda advantage to al-Qaeda. There are two obvious European answers to such an ultimatum:

(1) Yes [...we will stop the murderous campaign against Muslims that we have been waging at America and Israel's instigation.]
(2) No [...we will continue killing Muslims and committing all the barbarous acts you accuse us of because we do not care for your peace.]

Notice that either answer confirms bin Laden's unstated claims.

The first answer would of course be a tremendous victory for bin Laden. Note that his tape does not call for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq, but for a withdrawal of all personnel from all "Muslim countries". Of course bin Laden did not believe the Europeans would agree to this - that was not the purpose of the tape.

The second answer is still a victory for bin Laden, of course. The Europeans have confirmed the underlying assumption that al-Qaeda is the camp of peace, whereas America-Israel-Europe is the camp of war. This is entirely unrealistic, but European governments will now be more likely to distance themselves even further from Israel and America. By confirming al-Qaeda's claim that Europe is waging a war against Islam by daring to set foot in Muslim countries (who exactly appointed bin Laden the arbiter of what was a Muslim country or who was allowed into it?), the Europeans are placing themselves in an unenviable position. This tape restricts Europe's actions not only in Iraq and Afghanistan, but even in Kosovo and Bosnia! This tape is a brilliant wedge.

Someone at the BBC described this tape as the first example of Usama bin Laden striking a clever political blow. That is completely false - the tape is entirely in keeping with every other publication by al-Qaeda and every major political action the group has taken. What exactly happened in Madrid in March? Did Spain/Europe/The West ACT against Muslims, who then RESPONDED to their action with a bombing? Or did Islamists ATTACK Spain, at which point Spain RESPONDED by panicking? Who is pulling whose strings? Think of the tape. Bin Laden has the insolence to address Europe - and Europe quickly stammers out a response! When al-Qaeda acts, it is with an eye to making its enemies react in a particular way. The group has proven to be very successful in pushing us just where they want us, because they know us. On the other hand, we in the West know very little of al-Qaeda. Most of us don't understand what they want, how they think, what their plans are. So we can only act in the dark. Al-Qaeda watches and waits, and chooses its moment to dig the needle directly into the nerve. The West, stabbed in the dark, leaps away, or throws blind punches.

--------------
Taco: I agree with you; Europe would have done much better to refuse to respond to such a blatantly loaded ultimatum. At most, European leaders should have ridiculed his false assumptions and pointed out bin Laden declared war on the West in 1996 and 1998. He is offering a truce to a war he began. He has no right to speak on behalf of the Muslim world, particularly given that his network regularly kills Muslims in Iraq, Morocco, Turkey, Tanzania, and so on.

Bjorn: Please read this line by Usama bin Laden, and then tell me he doesn't understand the European mindset:
[[ I urge … the establishment of a permanent commission to nurture awareness among Europeans regarding the justness of our causes, particularly the cause of Palestine ]]
Usama bin Laden is smirking at Europe with that line...

Sandy P:
[[ Guys, pay attention to what's being taught in their schoolbooks, did you know America was discovered by Muslims? ]]

Al-Qaeda has schoolbooks?

Who exactly does "their" refer to?

Here is the URL the blog entry I mentioned above:

http://trevorstanley.blogspot.com/2004_04_01_trevorstanley_archive.html#108218631829627107

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/13877.html

Scot’s vision of Islamic Europe is condemned as ‘alarmist’

NIALL Ferguson, the controversial Scots historian, has run into yet another academic spat over his claim that increasing numbers of Muslim immigrants could lead to "the death of Europe" within 50 years. Two leading authors claimed that Mr Ferguson's comments, made in a newspaper article this week, were "alarmist" and "ridiculous". Mr Ferguson had said Muslims were poised to "colonise" Europe and transform the continent into "a hybrid called Eurabia".

"(Now, if he had offered to launch a peace process between al-Qaeda and the West, on the other hand ..)"

What scares me is that I actually think that this might very well have worked...

Never underestimate the stupidity of the "Chamberlin Society" (all appeasers are automatic members). There will be untold numbers of people clamoring for the "truce" to be "honored".

Caution! Graphic images.

http://home.comcast.net/~incubus52/lestweforget.html

Still want that truce?

Osama is an unspeakably evil and diabolically clever creature. The release of his tape on the eve of our election reveals his diabolical plan. And we just might fall into his trap. His aim? Increase the chances that George Bush will get re-elected. How? By playing on the fears of the American people. Bush has made this fear the centerpiece of his administration and of his campaign. “I’m a strong leader. You’re scared? Trust me. I’ll take care of you.” Exactly what Osama wants us to feel. Why? Restrict freedom to feel safer - the Patriot Act. Osama must love that! Reduce your freedom at home while you march into Iraq to bring freedom to the Arab world! Osama doesn’t need to blow us up. He did that once. That was all he needed. Now we are on the march to free “them” up while making “us” less free. He shows Muslims the contrast between the US, “the evil empire” and the Muslim world, “Allah’s people.” Who better symbolizes the evil empire to the Muslim world than George Bush? If Osama can get him elected, he crystallizes the conflict and increases recruitment of Muslim freedom fighters. It is no coincidence that this latest Osama tape was “political”. His campaign is now political backed by needed brutality. Get involved in the internal politics of nations. Blow up a Spanish train – get the people angry. New government, troops leave. First crack in Bush’s minimal coalition. Next, terrorism – kidnappings, beheadings and pressure for more withdrawal. Maybe it will work. But the big prize is the American election. Make sure Bush is elected and then just let him do his own thing. He will alienate other nations and soon the US will stand alone. He is the easiest leader for Osama to confront. Utterly predictable, always tough. Osama knows which buttons to press. Meanwhile, Osama builds a huge army ensuring that freedom does not spread to the Middle East. Having an easy to manipulate foe only strengthens Osama’s hand. So we face a paradox. We want to replace repression with democracy –also Bush’s goal. But the more we follow his path, the less likely we are to achieve what he wants. John Kerry shares those same goals but has different tactics. He knows that we are best able to spread democracy by modeling democracy at home, with a fair economy, health care for all, and a society that comes together at home and joins together with other nations. John Kerry needs to say: “Osama, we’re on to your game. You want us to be afraid so we elect George Bush believing he will keep us safe. That choice they plays right into your hands. We elect a leader who is hated in your world so you can recruit new soldiers. A predictable leader so its easy for you to create your Armageddon scenario. You know that I would be a much tougher foe for you. You can’t pull my strings. I am not predictable. I think about things. Sometimes, they require answer A and that’s what I give. Sometimes they require answer B. that’s not flip-flopping. It’s tactics. I know about tactics. When I sailed down the Mekong River the enemy expected that I would sail away faster to escape their fire on my boat. But that’s not what I did. I turned my boat around and sailed back into the fire. I did the unexpected and I killed the enemy. So you know that if you faced me, I would be more unpredictable and a much tougher foe for you to deal with. That’s why you need to ensure that the American people elect George Bush so that your chance of success is increased. But your strategy is flawed. It assumes that the American people are fools – that they can’t see through your plan. But we are not fools. We see what you are up to and we won’t be fooled into the fear that elects a leader who plays into your hands. No. On November 2, the American people will vote for their vision not for their fear and they will elect me. And then, Osama, you are in for the fight of your life. I won’t take my eye off the ball. I’ll pursue you and I’ll catch you and put an end to your diabolical plans.”

Trackback URL: http://bearstrong.net/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/661

Tim Worstall: Osama and the Peace Treaty ", April 16, 2004 12:56 PM

Bjorn links to a Memri translation of the latest Osama Bin Laden tape with his offer of a ceasefire / peace treaty. I think he's right in his reading of the reaction : The only politically possible response to such

Tim Worstall: Osama and the Peace Treaty ", May 2, 2004 07:17 PM

Bjorn links to a Memri translation of the latest Osama Bin Laden tape with his offer of a ceasefire / peace treaty. I think he's right in his reading of the reaction : The only politically possible response to such